Friday, November 28, 2025

AI 171 Crash Probe

AI 171 Crash Probe: Friction, unease and mistrust have marked the ongoing probe into the Air India Flight 171 crash, The Wall Street Journal reported.

Tension between the US' NTSB and Indian investigators at one point reached so high that Homendy even threatened to withdraw support for the probe.

Temporary link: When two American black-box specialists landed in New Delhi in late June, urgent messages arrived on their phones.

Don’t go with the Indians, their colleagues told them.

Earlier that day, Indian authorities had told their American counterparts of a new plan to unlock the mysteries behind the first deadly crash involving a Boeing 787 Dreamliner.

They wanted the U.S. technical experts to take a late-night flight on a military plane and then drive to a remote area. At an aerospace company’s lab there, the experts were supposed to analyze flight-data and cockpit voice recorders pulled from the wreckage of the Air India jet that crashed nearly two weeks prior, killing all but one of the 242 on board.

But that plan for the recorders—commonly called the black boxes—worried Jennifer Homendy, a top U.S. transportation official. She and other American officials were concerned about the safety of U.S. personnel and equipment being taken to a remote location amid State Department security warnings about terrorism and military conflicts in the region.

The National Transportation Safety Board chairwoman made a flurry of calls, including to Sean Duffy, President Trump’s transportation secretary, as well as the chief executives of Boeing and engine-maker GE Aerospace.

At her request, the State Department sent embassy officials to intercept the NTSB recorder specialists at the airport, and the Americans stayed in Delhi.

The previously unreported episode marked a high point of tension between Indian government officials, who are leading the probe into the June 12 crash, and the American experts assisting them. The investigation has been marked by points of tension, suspicion and poor communication between senior officials of the two nations, according to interviews with more than a dozen people familiar with the probe and internal documents.

In June, in the crucial early days of the investigation, Homendy complained about delays in downloading data from the Air India flight and insisted Indian officials extract information from the Air India black boxes at their facility in Delhi or at the NTSB’s lab in Washington.

Wednesday, November 19, 2025

Quick notes: What's in the Report-to-Congress?

US panel’s report claims Pakistan’s "success" over India in May 7-10 clash. PDF link
Pakistan’s military "success" over India in its four-day clash showcased Chinese weaponry. While characterization of this conflict as a “proxy war” may overstate China’s role as an instigator, Beijing opportunistically leveraged the conflict to test and advertise the sophistication of its weapons, useful in the contexts of its ongoing border tensions with India and its expanding defense industry goals.

As Pakistan’s largest defense supplier, China provided approximately 82 percent of the country’s arms imports from 2019 to 2023.204 This clash was the first time China’s modern weapons systems, including the HQ-9 air defense system, PL-15 air-to-air missiles, and J-10 fighter aircraft were used in active combat, serving as a real-world field experiment.205 China reportedly offered to sell 40 J-35 fifth-generation fighter jets, KJ-500 aircraft, and ballistic missile defense systems to Pakistan in June 2025.206 That same month, Pakistan announced a 20 percent increase in its 2025–2026 defense budget, raising planned expenditures to $9 billion despite an overall budget decrease.

In the weeks after the conflict, Chinese embassies hailed the successes of its systems in the India-Pakistan clash, seeking to bolster weapons sales. Pakistan’s use of Chinese weapons to down French Rafale fighter jets used by India also became a particular selling point for Chinese Embassy defense sales efforts despite the fact that only three jets flown by India’s military were reportedly downed and all may not have been Rafales.

According to French intelligence, China initiated a disinformation campaign to hinder sales of French Rafales in favor of its own J-35s, and it used fake social media accounts to propagate AI and video game images of supposed “debris” from the planes China’s weaponry destroyed. Chinese Embassy officials convinced Indonesia to halt a purchase of Rafale jets already in process, furthering China’s inroads into other regional actors’ military procurements.

China Opportunistically Used Pakistan’s Military Crisis to Test and Promote Its Own Defense Capabilities

The Indian Army claimed China helped Pakistan with “live inputs” on Indian military positions throughout the crisis and effectively used the conflict as a testing ground for its own military capabilities.




The Jeruselam post: How Pakistan shot down India's cutting-edge fighter using Chinese gear


Prof Bharat Karnad: In retrospect, Modi made the gravest strategic error by calling the White House after the Indian missiles had been fired at the terrorist facilities in Muridke and Bahawalpur on May 7 to inform the US President that the Indian strikes were limited retaliation for the Pahalgam massacre.

Modi was telling him nothing he did not already know. But the act of Modi telling him is what marked India out in the pecking order as a subsidiary power trying to preempt Trump from lashing out. It did not work.

Not sure why Modi feels it imperative to please the US President, when Trump insults and humiliates in return. Because going strictly by his transactionalist tilt, it is Trump’s America that will be hard put strategically to replace India in the Indo-Pacific, to economically find a market as vast as India’s to sell to.



Sunday, November 9, 2025

Quick notes: Anti-India hate | AfPak tensions...

Saturday, November 8, 2025

Quick notes: Dimmer skies | Stock valuations...

  • Bye-Bye Blue Skies: India is getting dimmer. Sunshine hours have been steadily declining across most regions for the past three decades. Aerosols from sources like vehicles and industries block sunlight — a phenomenon scientists call “solar dimming”. The consequences include reduced solar power output and reduced agriculture yields apart from health impact.



  • "India is the dumbest IPO market" "The millions and billions of small investors coming in. Someone has to extract money from them, so these IPOs come and take money from you".


  • The world’s most expensive stock market: In terms of Shiller P/E (a long-term measure of valuation that uses 10-year earnings figures), India is the most expensive equity market in the world, surpassing even the US. . . Buffett Indicator.


  • Incentive wars: Why walking away can be wiser. Karnataka’s refusal to outbid Andhra Pradesh for Google’s $15 billion AI data centre may seem like a loss, but in game theory – and governance – wisdom often lies in knowing when not to play. Around the world, multinational firms have mastered the art of triggering incentive wars between governments, extracting concessions that can erode public value. . . . The Hidden Cost of Google’s $15 Billion AI Data Center in Vizag.


  • China gets Swadeshi: China bans foreign AI chips from state-funded data centers.


  • "India is just screwing the parts together": Are we truly manufacturing, or just assembling parts? We destroyed our electronics industry and turned to a 100% importing nation. The real state of ‘Make in India’.



  • Showing spine: Vietnam Is Building Islands to Challenge China’s Hold on a Vital Waterway


  • Top researchers consider leaving U.S. amid funding cuts: A poll from the journal Nature found that 75% of researchers in the U.S. are considering leaving the country. That includes a man who’s been dubbed the "Mozart of Math".


  • Indian students in the US: Parents burn fortunes, US gains skills, India loses both capital & talent.